The
present chaos in the US administration grants us a historical minute or two to
zoom in on Iran without fear of Western
interference.

Iran is the home of worlds oldest civilisation. Its >80 million
inhabitants since WWII passed through a turbulent period in which Reza Shhah Pahlevi tried to raise
the rooted feudal society to a Western level. However he exceeded the progress
capacity of the common people and failed. Yet the traditional elite of Paris
university graduates has expanded ever since and added greatly to the training
of sufficient lower grade professionals to meet the industrial and
administrative demand and who. . . recently . . . , as a middle class, claimed safe banking system, appropriate jobs and free standard of living.
Their last popular protest developed in this sequence.
It challenged the ayatollahs and its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and tested ministerial president ayatollah Ruhani’s consent.
(since 2013 successor of the conservative Ahmadinejad). From president Ruhani’s governments point of view,
of course the protests had to be suppressed, but its resonance lingered on and
his speech on 31 dec.’17 Ruhani was largely reconciliatory.
Actually Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei intends to retire. Ayatollah Ruhani, more
modern and progressive, makes a good chance to succeed him, but the mighty
commander of Khamenei’s Revolutionary Guard, Moh. Ali Jafari is (as yet) against
him.

Anyway
the legitimany of the Islamic Republic is continuously eroding.
And
here US foreing policy comes in again with the successor of Tillerson, Mike
Pompeo, and general H.R.McMaster to be replaced by John Bolton (as Trump’s third national security adviser in one year),
in eithers ability to forment conflict.

”There, the unpredictability of US
foreign policy is balanced out with a clear and focused Putin policy of a
long-term Russian commitment to its Iran Alliance”. (Ramzy Baroud).
Compare
this to the special relationship between
US and Irsrael, in which the latter almost dictated US Middle East foreign
policy and forsee Rusia in a position that could, in the long
run, change the dynamics of the whole Middle East region.

Till next time, Arnout